Decisive, far-reaching efforts to cut methane emissions from fossil fuel production and use must go hand-in-hand with the decarbonization of the energy systems to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in partnership with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UNEP-convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC).
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas (GHG) responsible for around 30 percent of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution; it is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide (CO2).
Under current trajectories, total methane emissions from human activities could rise by up to 13 percent between 2020 and 2030. In a scenario that limits warming to 1.5 °C, they need to fall by 30 percent to 60 percent over this timeframe.
More than half of global emissions stem from human activities in three sectors: agriculture, waste, and fossil fuels. Cuts in methane emissions from fossil fuel operations will likely need to provide around half of this reduction.
Reducing methane in fossil fuel operations
The joint reportThe Imperative of Cutting Methane from Fossil Fuels, released on October 11, 2023, builds on findings from the IEA’s recently updated net zero pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 °C.
The report was launched at MENA Climate Week 2023, a forum for leaders to discuss climate and energy issues in the Middle East and North Africa during the Global Stocktake process.
This process will culminate at the UN’s Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Reducing methane emissions from the energy sector is one of the best – and most affordable – opportunities to limit global warming in the near term. Early actions by governments and industry to drive down methane emissions need to go hand-in-hand with reductions in fossil fuel demand and CO2emissions. This report sets out the clear case for strong, swift action, said Dr Fatih Birol Executive Director, IEA.
Reduced fossil fuel demand is not enough
The report shows that while a drop in fossil fuel demand would cut methane emissions, these reductions by themselves would not occur fast enough to meet the world’s climate goals.
Additional targeted actions to tackle methane emissions from fossil fuel production and use – such as by eliminating routine venting and flaring and repairing leaks – are essential to limit warming to 1.5 °C and reduce the risk of crossing irreversible climate tipping points.
It finds that rapid cuts in methane emissions from fossil fuels could avoid up to 0.1 °C in global temperature rise by mid-century – greater than the emissions impact of immediately taking all cars and trucks in the world off the road.
As methane emissions lead to ground-level ozone pollution, immediate action would also deliver public health, food security, and economic benefits.
Based on modeling of the UNEP/CCAC Global Methane Assessment published in 2021 – which, for the first time, assessed and integrated the climate and air pollution costs and benefits from methane mitigation – methane action would prevent nearly 1 million premature deaths due to ozone exposure, 90 million tonnes of crop losses due to ozone and climate changes, and about 85 billion hours of lost labour due to extreme heat by 2050.
This would generate roughly US$260 billion in direct economic benefits through 2050. The Global Methane Assessment formed the scientific underpinning of the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) by illustrating that there are readily available measures to achieve its goals.
Cutting methane doesn’t let us off the hook to make good on the just energy transition. But cutting methane is a low-hanging fruit while we work on the overall decarbonization of our economies in tandem with supporting our societies to build greater resilience. Investments in maintenance and operational changes that prevent methane from leaking into the atmosphere are a fraction of profits made from fossil fuels. This is in stark contrast to the cost of inaction, from crop productivity losses to impacts on human health and the economy, said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
Cost-effective abatement
More than three-quarters of methane emissions from oil and gas operations and half of emissions from coal can be abated with existing technology, often at low cost.
Tackling methane emissions is one of the most cost-effective ways to reduce GHG emissions. Around US$75 billion in spending is required by 2030 to deploy all methane abatement measures in the oil and gas sector in the IEA’s net zero scenario, the report finds.
This is equivalent to less than 2 percent of the income generated by the oil and gas industry in 2022.
We know what to do, we have the means to do it. There is a support system in place to help countries develop roadmaps, policies, and regulations, and to provide countries and companies with credible data to drive emissions reductions. We must do it now, ended Inger Andersen.
